Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing act: Navigating U.S.-China ties amid shifting South Asia dynamics
- Rick Dunham
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
By SIYUAN WEN
Global Business Journalism reporter
Pakistan is navigating a geopolitical balancing act amid fresh shifts in South Asia’s power dynamics. The country is strengthening ties with the United States while preserving its “iron brotherhood” partnership with China, Pakistani researcher Zoon Ahmed Khan told Global Business Journalism students on Nov. 3.
The rapidly shifting South Asian dynamics include India’s strained relations with the United States during Donald Trump’s second term as president. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on India in July 2025 and administration officials announced crackdowns on the high-skill visas used for decades by Indian nationals working in America — moves widely seen as signs of deteriorating relations. Just months later, India signed the Tianjin Declaration at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit with positions that diverged from the U.S. stance, further widening their strategic gap after years of common cause.
Other dynamics include India’s growing rifts with Western allies, such as a 2024 diplomatic dispute with Canada over the Khalistan movement, Bangladesh’s 2024 government transition that weakened India’s traditional influence there, and renewed border tensions between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan that drew the great powers into mediation efforts. Trump claimed to have been responsible for a ceasefire, something that Indian prime minister Narendra Modi flatly rejected. Modi also denied Trump’s claims that the Indian leader had told him that his nation would stop buying Russian oil, a key demand of the American president.
Against this backdrop, Khan highlighted unexpected thaw in U.S.-Pakistan relations, and it comes without undermining Pakistan’s decades-long partnership with China.
“Pakistan is not choosing sides, it is choosing pragmatic interests,” Khan told the Tsinghua audience. “The U.S, wants rare earth minerals; Pakistan has them. China wants to deepen CPEC [the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor]. Pakistan needs that investment. As long as Pakistan sets clear boundaries, these two partnerships don’t have to clash.”
The U.S.-Pakistan rapprochement, she explained, includes concrete steps: Pakistan’s military chief met with Trump; the two nations are negotiating a rare earth cooperation deal; and Pakistan nominated Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize in 2024, citing his role in mediating the ceasefire between Pakistan and India. This ceasefire was a direct effort to ease one of the most volatile flashpoints in South Asia’s shifting dynamics, Khan added.
“Just a decade ago, after the 2011 Osama bin Laden raid, U.S.-Pakistan trust was at its lowest. Now, the US and Pakistan are talking cooperation again,” said Khan.
This outreach to the U.S. has not weakened Pakistan’s bond with China, forged in part by the CPEC, the $46 billion Belt and Road Initiative flagship project launched in 2015. She noted that CPEC itself has become a key part of South Asia’s shifting dynamics, as China’s investments have expanded to other regional nations like Sri Lanka and Nepal, challenging India’s long-held status as the region’s primary economic influencer.
“No major power invested in our economy until China stepped in,” said Khan. “CPEC showed smaller South Asian countries that they have options beyond India, which is a reason why the region’s dynamics are shifting today.”
Pakistan's balancing act
She acknowledged concerns about potential friction: China dominates global rare earth processing, and the U.S. has framed its engagement with Pakistan as part of a broader strategy to counter China’s influence in South Asia. But Khan argued Pakistan’s balancing act is a direct response to the lessons from the 1965 India-Pakistan War, when the U.S. refused to provide military aid, pushing Pakistan to avoid overreliance on any single power.
“Pakistan learned the hard way: Relying on one power is risky,” said Khan. “With China, Pakistan has a long-term, all-weather partnership. With the U.S., Pakistan has a transactional, interest-based relationship. That’s not a weakness but how Pakistan adapts to South Asia’s ever-shifting dynamics.”
Khan stressed the need to avoid framing Pakistan’s ties as a “choice” between the U.S. and China, and to instead contextualize them within South Asia’s shifting power landscape.
Looking ahead, Khan said Pakistan’s biggest challenge will be maintaining that balance amid growing U.S.-China competition in South Asia. But she expressed optimism because of Pakistan’s history of navigating great power rivalries in an ever-changing regional landscape.
“The media often portrays this as an either/or, but that’s not reality,” said Khan. “Pakistan’s survival depends on balancing interests, and that balance only makes sense when you see how much the region itself has changed.”